What the 2015 “detransition” numbers really tell us
(A plain-language look at why those headline statistics don’t prove what they claim)

1. The survey never aimed to count detransitioners in the first place
The 2015 U.S. Trans Survey (fielded in 2011) was advertised only through trans-centred e-mail lists, support groups, and the FTM Sonoma County website. Because you had to identify as transgender at the moment you clicked “submit,” every person who had already dropped a trans identity was quietly screened out. As one participant put it: “The USTS disqualified detransitioners who weren’t trans at the time of taking the survey, so they really only got people temporarily detransitioning.” – Miseracordiae source [citation:f7454443-25a7-4b19-8673-0f571cea2763]
In short, the famous “rare-regret” figure comes from a pool that was designed to miss the very group whose regret it claims to measure.

2. The final 448 were cherry-picked, not random
Over 600 people opened the questionnaire, but only 448 answers were kept. The researchers never published the rules for dropping the other 150-plus responses. “They weeded that down to 448; out of many received it we don’t know.” – ralberic source [citation:071c192e-f3d0-4b16-918f-2695a8667c5d]
When a small, non-random slice becomes the basis for sweeping statements about an entire population, the math simply doesn’t hold.

3. A self-selected, eight-year-old snapshot can’t speak for today’s wave
The survey went live in 2011—before the sharp rise in people identifying as trans and before the current surge of detrans voices online. “You’d be lying if you haven’t noticed… an INSANE boom of people coming out as trans… and the snowball of people… detransitioning.” – scoutydouty source [citation:47cd7bcf-366c-420c-a0b0-c2e6a7010b46]
Using a tiny, decade-old convenience sample to reassure today’s seekers is like using 1990s dial-up data to predict modern internet traffic.

4. Recruitment bias hides people who leave the community altogether
Advertisements went only to queer centres, trans listservs, and allied nonprofits—places detransitioners who feel disillusioned rarely visit. “Personally… none of these liberal studies have found me. A conservative study did.” – Ok_Dog_202 source [citation:9bcf83b5-2153-4605-b7bd-de9a43e56715]
When you fish in only one pond, you can’t declare the whole lake empty.

Putting it together
The oft-quoted “less than one percent regret” figure is not a neutral head-count; it is the product of a study that:

• required current trans identity to participate,
• trimmed the respondent pool without transparent criteria,
• recruited only through trans-supportive channels, and
• captured a moment in time that predates today’s rapid social changes.

For anyone questioning gender or seeking honest numbers, the takeaway is hopeful but clear: real understanding starts with hearing the full range of lived experience, not with a single, selective survey. Your story—and your path to peace—need not be squeezed into statistics that were never built to include you.